Since this topic comes up with literally every new lockbox and especially with the grand lotteries that hold a highly desireable ship I'd advice to do so before you take a shot.
You have a chance of winning a T6 TOS ship upon opening a R&D pack. This chance is unknown as Cryptic does not publish the odds the RNG is set up with. We can assume though that it is a rather low one, as the purpose of a lottery is not to give out a lot of grand prizes.
When you buy a R&D pack and open it, each opening of a box is independent. That means each and every box you open has the same chance of containing the prize. It doesn't matter if you open 1, 100 or 1000, each opening has the same chance. Assuming the draw on Cryptics end is truly random and independent, the system does not have a "memory" which means a miss-draw does not increase the chances of a succesful draw. To provide an example, imagine winning the great prize equals drawing the queen of hearts out of a deck of cards. Whenever you pull out a different card you put the card back into the deck and re-riffle. If you would take out miss-drawn cards then your chances would increase, but this does not happen in this case. There is no universal law that somehow makes repeated miss-draws increase your future chance of success in that draw. There is no Fortuna watching over you.
Mind you, mathematically it is true that with every box you open the chances to not get the grand prize is decreasing. That does still not mean your chances of getting the prize are increasing. These are two different sets of observations and still do not change the set chance of winning the prize upon opening a R&D box. By using this logic to justify another box you are in error and probably already above your budget to spend on virtual lottery tickets.
This is a lottery. Read up on it. If you invest a lot of money with the purpose of winning a T6 TOS ship and you don't nobody is to blame but yourself.
That is all, have a good day![pig-1.gif]()
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Thanks to @tacticalrook we have a sample ( http://forum.arcgames.com/startrekonline/discussion/1220998/tos-promo-pack-tribble-results-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened )
According to this sample the odds are 114/10000 or 0.0114. That means the odds to not get a ship every time you open a pack are 0.9886 or 98.9%.
Mind you, these are not the "real" odds. Only Cryptic knows those, these are the odds derived from a sampling of ten thousand tickets.
You have a chance of winning a T6 TOS ship upon opening a R&D pack. This chance is unknown as Cryptic does not publish the odds the RNG is set up with. We can assume though that it is a rather low one, as the purpose of a lottery is not to give out a lot of grand prizes.
When you buy a R&D pack and open it, each opening of a box is independent. That means each and every box you open has the same chance of containing the prize. It doesn't matter if you open 1, 100 or 1000, each opening has the same chance. Assuming the draw on Cryptics end is truly random and independent, the system does not have a "memory" which means a miss-draw does not increase the chances of a succesful draw. To provide an example, imagine winning the great prize equals drawing the queen of hearts out of a deck of cards. Whenever you pull out a different card you put the card back into the deck and re-riffle. If you would take out miss-drawn cards then your chances would increase, but this does not happen in this case. There is no universal law that somehow makes repeated miss-draws increase your future chance of success in that draw. There is no Fortuna watching over you.
Mind you, mathematically it is true that with every box you open the chances to not get the grand prize is decreasing. That does still not mean your chances of getting the prize are increasing. These are two different sets of observations and still do not change the set chance of winning the prize upon opening a R&D box. By using this logic to justify another box you are in error and probably already above your budget to spend on virtual lottery tickets.
This is a lottery. Read up on it. If you invest a lot of money with the purpose of winning a T6 TOS ship and you don't nobody is to blame but yourself.
That is all, have a good day
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Thanks to @tacticalrook we have a sample ( http://forum.arcgames.com/startrekonline/discussion/1220998/tos-promo-pack-tribble-results-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened )
According to this sample the odds are 114/10000 or 0.0114. That means the odds to not get a ship every time you open a pack are 0.9886 or 98.9%.
Mind you, these are not the "real" odds. Only Cryptic knows those, these are the odds derived from a sampling of ten thousand tickets.